Melissa intensified Saturday afternoon into a Category 1 hurricane. It will continue to strengthen before making landfall as a Major Category 4 hurricane in Jamaica on Tuesday. The storm will drop two to three feet of rain on the island, creating catastrophic and life-threatening flash flooding and landslides.

Melissa is the fifth hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, joining Erin, Gabrielle, Humberto and Imelda.

After it lashes the Caribbean this weekend, there’s still uncertainty about where the storm will go next. Here are the scenarios, one day at a time.

Hurricane Melissa formed Saturday in the Caribbean forecast to rapidly intensify close to a Category 5 storm, but moving slowly while dumping “catastrophic” amounts of rain on islands

Melissa is projected to approach Jamaica this weekend, make landfall by early next week, and be near or over eastern Cuba by the middle of next week.

Tropical Storm Melissa's forecast is filled with uncertainty, prompting some dire worst-case scenarios for Caribbean islands.