Kristalina Georgieva, the managing director of the International Monetary Fund, warned in a speech that protectionism erodes productivity.

An extreme, protracted trade war between the U.S. and China brings profound risks that could plunge millions of people into poverty, economists say.

Bank analysts are busy raising their estimates of the likelihood of a global recession this year. JPMorgan Chase now puts the chances at 60%. There are also more precise measures of investors’ expectations for global growth.