The Media Has A Probability Problem The media’s demand for certainty — and its lack of statistical rigor — is a bad match for our complex world.

Science Isn’t Broken It’s just a hell of a lot harder than we give it credit for.

How Much Football Is Even In A Football Broadcast? NFL telecasts include a smaller share of game action than in any other major sport — even MLB.

The Republican Party May Be Failing What “The Party Decides” could get wrong about Donald Trump and the GOP.

Sources: American Community Survey, U.S. Election Atlas, ABC News Although they all have highly educated populations, these counties are otherwise reasonably diverse. The list includes major ...

Longtime readers of FiveThirtyEight are probably familiar with our pollster ratings: letter grades that we assign to pollsters based on their historical accuracy and transparency. Since 2008, we ...

2024 Republican Primary How Donald Trump’s Unusual Presidential Comeback Could Go History presents three possible paths.

Voting Rights How Majority-Minority Districts Fueled Diversity In Congress And why people of color are winning more seats outside of those districts too.

Self-reliance helps people thrive in a landscape that’s big and tough, but it can also put them at risk if they get into a personal crisis.

How I Acted Like A Pundit And Screwed Up On Donald Trump Trump’s nomination shows the need for a more rigorous approach.

When the new Congress comes into session in January, there will be more Black Republicans serving together on Capitol Hill than at any point since 1877. The number? Five. 1 For years, Republicans ...

In the aftermath of the 2020 election, Republican lawmakers have pushed new voting restrictions in nearly every state. From making it harder to cast ballots ear… ...